Are we in altseason?

Altseason refers to a period of the crypto cycle when funds are pumped into cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, which rise in value as they ride on the coattails of Bitcoin’s momentum. As the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin often steers crypto market trends, attracting the most attention and therefore drawing investors in. Once they’ve had a taste of Bitcoin, they often cast their eyes further down the food chain to altcoins —mainly to the so-called “dino coins”, due to their longevity and prominence, such as Ethereum— to test the waters following Bitcoin gains. Altseason represents an opportunity for seasoned traders to diversify portfolios, which also draws in a wave of speculation and can increase volatility in the crypto market. 

So, having watched the crypto market pump over the past month, are we in altseason? If not, is it coming? And why might this cycle’s season not be as universally prosperous as previous years. 

What is altseason?

Altseason, as the name suggests, is the season in which altcoins (any cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin) undergo significant surges in price relative to Bitcoin. During altseason, investors’ focus shifts to other less dominant coins, such as Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, Ripple, etc., as Bitcoin’s value appears to stabilize. The crypto community refers to the period leading up to altseason as “The path to Altseason,” which has four distinct phases that indicate an imminent altseason. 

Put very simply, first, money flows into Bitcoin; second, Bitcoin’s surge slows, and money starts flowing into Ethereum; third, Ethereum is seen to be outperforming Bitcoin, and money flows into large-cap altcoins (coins with a market cap of over $10 billion.); and fourth, altseason arrives, and large-, mid- and small-cap altcoins are pumping at the same time. 

Are we in altseason?

Analysts are divided. While the notable performance of large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and Ripple —most of which saw 100%+ growth in November 2024— has caught investors’ attention, some experts argue that most of the Bitcoin inflows are coming from ETF investment, which is not strictly part of the crypto market. Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant founder and CEO, tweeted that while he believes altseason is on the horizon, it will only happen “for a few, not every altcoin will hit its previous ATH.” 

Other platforms, such as Blockchain Centre definitely confirm “It is not Altcoin Season!”. According to them, for it to be considered altseason, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins need to have performed better than Bitcoin over the last 90 days. At the time of writing, Blockchain Centre states that we are currently at 65%, indicating the Path to Altseason has commenced. 

Why this altseason may not mirror past performances

The current market dynamics suggest that this altseason may not replicate past performances. Unlike previous cycles, the present Bitcoin rally is predominantly fueled by institutional investors and spot ETFs, which typically do not rotate funds back into the crypto market and into altcoins. Analysts warn that a fresh influx of retail investment is needed to pump altcoins to new ATHs, but with institutional interest focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this altseason may not be as exciting as previous cycles might suggest. 

In 2017, for example, the crypto market saw a remarkable altseason, as Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 86.3% in late 2017 to 38.69% by early 2018, while the initial coin offering (ICO) market boomed. In 2021, again, the spotlight shifted as retail investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts began exploring options outside of Bitcoin. This trend gave rise to a new wave of meme-based tokens, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu experiencing remarkable surges in popularity and value.

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